WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT JUVENILE MAIDENS AT BELMONT @
AQUEDUCT
Network News & Notes
Tuesday, September 12
(Fresh Articles From Network News & Notes Every Tuesday and Friday)
Jim Hurley
Year in and year out at Saratoga, there is no secret that the biggest barns with the
highest priced and regarded two-year olds ready to race are pointed to that meet.
Owners want the showcase, trainers want to get a jump on late season stakes and
the 3-year old campaigns.
There is little information on the best of the best that does not get circulated at
Saratoga. Hence, the adage that bettors can “follow the tote board” with a
serious amount of confidence gets played out, and the resulting number of
favorites winning these races exceeds the overall winning favorite percentage of
races at the SPA every summer.
This past season, there were as many odds-on favorites winning these races as
there were favorites in general.
Now racing moves downstate. And all of that gets turned on it head.
Juvenile races now become a minefield for those who believe they can still take
the shortcut and simply bet the tote.
The reason for his is logical. All those well-meant juvenile maidens have been
played. Now it is time for the big barns to either reload with their second string
two-year olds or concentrate on the allowance races and stakes races that will
follow for youngsters that have already won.
While this minefield blows up in the faces of a public which betts don the
favorites based simply on what the supposed “inside” that shows up on the tote,
it creates a great opportunity for the Jim Hurley Network handicappers who know
that the Belmont @ Aqueduct Fall Meet creates a whole new set of rules.
(Statistics Tell The Tale)
If you are serious about getting off to a great start to this 8 week meet (Thursday
September 14 to Sunday, October 29) then you’ll want to join Jim as he takes
advantage of the value provided by these juvenile maiden races.
Last year during the first 4 weeks of this corresponding Belmont at Aqueduct
Meet, beating the favorite was the rule and not the exception.
Here are the numbers:
*29 Juvenile Maiden Races
*21 Beaten Favorites – 8 Winning Favorites
*11 Odds-On Beaten Favorites – 2 Winning Odds-On Favorites
*That’s an average of only 27.6 percent winning favorites vs an overall average of
35% winning favorites during the same time period. And that comparative 35% is
actually higher if you subtract the juvenile races from the equation.
*Average payoff of all 29 juvenile maiden races is $12.30.
This suggests that you forget about the Saratoga adage to “play the tote.” And
that is where I come in because I have the connections who are monitoring the
all-important two-year old workouts. I have the years and years of data which
show the net positive on trainers with first time starters and trainers who make
start number two or three the go to race. And a whole lot more.
I will also tell you that my Opening Day Longshot at the Belmont @ Aqueduct Fall
Meet is a Juvenile Maiden Special Weight Race.
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