A quick book report on Noel Michaels’
9 Steps to Picking
the Derby Winner
With new material showing how the Steps pointed to the stunning upset of Mine That Bird!
Pardon the pun, but let’s cut right to the chase. Here’s an abbreviated guide to what you can expect from my new book and, step by step, how it can help you pick the Derby winner:
The Best 2-Year-Olds are usually not the Best 3-Year-Olds. Read my list of horses that ran in the B.C. Juvenile and did NOT win the Derby – and the list of Derby winners who did NOT race in the B.C. Juvenile. Its like two-yearolds and three-year-olds belong to two completely different universes. Read why!
Look for Horses with Steadily Improving Form. Check out the pp’s of the Kentucky Derby winners from 1998 to 2008, which are included in “9 STEPS.” Scan through the pp’s of the recent Kentucky Derby winners and you will notice the list of horses who were peaking at just the right time.
Upgrade Outside Post Positions, and Downgrade Posts 1-3. What a story! It turns out that outside posts from 15 out are more win-productive than inside posts. Posts 1-2-3 are only 3 for 90 in the last thirty years! – And may explain why Curlin – post 2 – lost the Derby in ’07! Why are Churchill Downs outside “auxiliary” posts so helpful? Read up on it. It’s an eye opener that could make you money!
Running Style Counts – Stalkers and Closers Have the Edge. Check out what happens at the end of 6 furlongs. If the pace has been fast up to that point, watch closers and stalkers take over! If the pace has been moderate, front runners and speed horses retain the lead. There’s no guesswork here. I’ve got the hard number, tables & suggestions.
Handicap a Horse Based on Its Best Career Route Races. Pay no attention to horses’ big speed figures in sprint races or one-turn miles. Why? You will be hard-pressed to find a Kentucky Derby winner who wasn’t already proven in two turns in terms of wins and/or speed figures when stacked up against the rest of the field. Of the winners of the Kentucky Derby in the new millennium from 2000 to 2008, only Giacomo had not earned a pre-Derby dirt route Beyer speed figure in excess of 100. Get the full story!
Derby Contenders Don’t Need to Win Their Final Prep Race. Since 1989, the last Pre-Derby start of eventual Derby Winners shows 8-wins, 8-seconds, 1-third and 3-fourths. Winning the last pre-Derby race has no importance, so long as the horse is fine tuned for the big one. PLUS, if he loses the pre-final prep, we get a break in the price. See the complete record of the 6 major final derby preps from ’96 to ’08 – who won, who lost, who went on to finish in a trifecta. PLUS, get my complete rundown on which preps are more important and which are less important than before. And don’t miss my four prep race rules for Kentucky Derby contenders.
Look for Value by Bucking the Trainer Stats. Don’t pooh pooh non-name trainers. They are often involved in very big Derby wins and payoffs. Like John Shirreffs – (Giacomo $102.60)… Barclay Tagg – (Funny Cide $27.60)… John Ward – (Monarchos $23.00)… Read more.
Ignore Dosage, Unless You’re Willing to Bet Against it! Step by step I prove that dosage is so stupid, you would have lost money if you followed it and made money if you had bet against it.
Bet Against “Dual Qualifiers” With the exception of Street Sense in ‘07, This idea – which combines Dosage Index with 2-Year-Old Form – did not produce a single Derby winner since Silver Charm in ’98 and should be buried forever.
Now how does all this wisdom add up? I show you – with a point system that tells you how many points to award or take away from a horse depending on how it stacks up in all the categories I have described.
That’s not all. My book is a misnomer because it also gives you steps for picking the Preakness and Belmont winners too.
5 Steps to picking the Preakness Winner
- STEP #1: Only certain Preakness post positions really matter
- STEP #2: It helps to be close to the pace in the Preakness
- STEP #3: Preakness Winners almost always are exiting good races
- STEP #4: California-based horses trained by anyone other than Baffert or Lukas are ice cold in the Preakness
- STEP #5: Bet Maryland Jockeys, Not Maryland Horses
5 Steps to picking the Belmont Winner
- STEP #1: Box the outside posts in Belmont Stakes exactas. Outside posts win! Read the amazing proof.
- STEP #2: Horses with classic breeding and classic credentials win the Belmont. It’s a family affair.
- STEP #3: Fresh horses have an edge in the Belmont Stakes. Eight of the last ten Belmont winners skipped either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness, or were Triple Crown newcomers altogether.
- STEP #4: Speed and middle movers do better than deep closers.
- STEP #5: Bring back the dual qualifiers!